CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2019-05-13T16:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2019-05-13T16:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14752/-1
CME Note: Signature is very weak and difficult to discern exact time. From Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: Around ~21 hrs on the May 16, there is a monotonic change in the magnetic field direction that can be associated with a flux rope signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T16:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-16T11:36Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2019-05-13 21:49 - Time at C2: 2019-05-13 16:09 - Radial speed: 594.0 km/s - Half angle: 27 deg - Eruption location: S13W10 Inferences: - No flare association was found Predictions for Earth: - In-situ shock speed: 584.20 km/s - Shock arrival time: 2019-05-16 11:36 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.45 hours) Predicted Kp: 4.0 - 5.0Lead Time: 58.43 hour(s)
Difference: 4.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2019-05-14T05:44Z
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